The newcomer’s biggest misconception is that he thinks he can bet regularly with odds between 1.2 and 1.3 and still get a steady income. The beginner thinks the probability is around 80%, but it is far from being true. And this opinion is considered to be wrong. Betting on sporting events with low odds is considered one of the most difficult. It is influenced by morale, margin and optimal bankroll growth.
Morale
In the 18th century, the famous mathematician Nikolai Bernoulli proved that a low-likelihood outcome has no effect on a bettor’s valuation. To be precise, the probability is 1:16. That’s the same as if a coin were to hit heads five times in a row. If you exceed this level, the probability is too small to make a judgement and decision. This is caused by a sense of risk aversion.
Growth of the bankroll
Let us take a football match as an example. Before this sporting event, the bookies expect the team to score a goal and a half, and the opponents one goal. If there is an advantage over the market, and the team scores 1.6 goals, and the opponents one goal, it is logical that one would want to bet on the winning team. But it is not clear which handicap will be better. The Poisson distribution comes to the rescue. The graph shows which handicap will give the best result. The Poisson distribution is considered the basic model that helps analysts at many bookmakers’ offices to draw lines.
Kelly Criteria Calculator
The Kelly Criterion calculator can help you find out how the bankroll grows for a particular handicap. On the graph there is a line, in which the growth of bankroll is maximal. It is located around handicap -1. The ratios range from 1.56 to 2.8.
The safety bets and plus handicaps give the smallest increment of the bankroll.
Thus it is clear, that betting on low odds is nothing more than an illusion. The player does not reduce the variance, because in order to make a profit, you need to bet a large amount of money.